Politicians are perpetually engaged in the struggle for power. The power game can also be an interesting one where there are never dull moments. Just as the dust is settling on the April 2011 general elections, Nigerian politicians have kick-started the race for 2015 general election which will feature the presidential and parliamentary elections as well as those into a majority of the state Government Houses.
Tukur’s election precipitates moves in PDP
With the election of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on March 24, the eyes of top political heavyweights in the land have now set on 2015. The emerging realignment of forces in the North and the South is indicative of a titanic battle ahead. In the North, forces within the PDP are already positioning for the election in different directions. There is the emerging force of the governors, especially in the three zones of the North, while in the South, things have been silent with unclear signals coming from the camp of President Goodluck Jonathan.
Oppositions also strategising
Around the opposition figures, loyalists of former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu, recently urged him to join the presidential race. Even before then, Tinubu has been seen to set up a 2015 war room with every indication pointing to the likelihood of the man taking a shot directly, rather than queuing behind General Muhammadu Buhari as running mate, a plot that failed to materialise in 2011.
Opposition political forces in the North have also been coalescing around General Buhari, founder of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), who is still being persuaded by his loyalists to join the race. He had said during the last contest that the 2011 election would be his last.
Names of notable contenders emerging
Names already coming to the fore include Vice President Namadi Sambo, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Jigawa State governor, Alhaji Sule Lamido; Niger State governor, Muazu Babangida Aliyu; his Bauchi State counterpart, Mallam Isa Yuguda; Adamawa State governor, Murtala Nyako; and Sokoto State governor, Alhaji Aliyu Magartakarda Wammako.
Others include Senate President David Mark, Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State, former Kwara State governor, Senator Bukola Saraki; former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mallam Nasiru el-Rufai; among others.
Silent realignments ongoing in the North
Movements in the Northern political sphere in recent months have suggested a realignment of forces, with the likes of former Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida; former Head of State, General Abdusalami Abubakar; and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar holding strategic meetings.
Though the meetings were portrayed as avenues to discuss the security situation in the country, especially the menace of Boko Haram, which has ravaged the Northern states, feelers indicated that the leaders tried to send a signal by holding a public meeting.
On the heels of the Babangida-Atiku- Abdusalami parley was also another gathering of Northern political bigwigs put together by Dr. Junaid Mohammed. While the parley by Babangida and others gave indication that it was concerned about resolving the security challenge in the North, the concerned eminent Northern leaders led by Dr. Mohammed did not hide their direction.
The group projected itself as the mouthpiece of the North, stating emphatically that it would back the convocation of a National Conference which would guarantee the adjustment of the current revenue formula.
The group expressed the belief that the revenue formula is skewed in favour of the South-South, which now enjoys the 13 per cent derivation funds as a result of oil exploration activities in the states.
The Northern elders, in a statement endorsed by the convener of the meeting Dr. Muhammed, said going by the growing conflicts and insecurity in the land, time was ripe for the restructuring of Nigeria.
Those who attended the meeting include governors of Niger and Jigawa states, Dr. Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu, and Alhaji Sule Lamido; former Senate President, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu; former Deputy Senate President, Dr. John Wash-Pam; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed; former ministers including, Dr. Shettima Mustapha, Alhaji Adamu Maina Waziri and Malam Lawal Batagarawa, and a former Chairman of the Presidential Advisory Council, Professor Nur Alkali.
Others include former Chairman of Langtang South Local Government Area of Plateau State, Mr. Solomon Dalung; former Presidential Legal Advisers, Ibrahim Ismail; and Professor Awwal Yadudu.
The statement read: “The meeting resolved to support the calls for the restructuring of the Nigerian Federation in the hope that the lopsidedness in the structure of the nation’s politics and economy will be a key agenda issue.
“It then called on the Northern Governors’ Forum (NGF) to liaise with other stakeholders in the North, such as the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Northern Union (NU), Jama’atul Nasirl Islam (JNI), Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), women, youths and students’ bodies and other groups to join hands to tackle the identified threats confronting the region.”
Moves began in the North February
A flurry of political activities actually took place around February and early March to indicate that the North was flagging off the race for 2015. Dr. Mohammed was to follow up the meeting he convened with press interviews where he let the veil off the agenda of the North. He said the region ought to do everything it could to win back power in 2015.
el-Rufai leads CPC political engineers
The CPC, which had discussed the issue of 2015 at two meetings, held early in the year, also kick-started its reengineering plans with Mallam Nasir el-Rufai as the head. The party is yet to clear the air on whether it has been able to convince its founder, General Buhari, to re-contest the general election or whether it would allow former Minister of the FCT, el-Rufai, to take a shot at the Presidency.
Northern governors’ crucial meetings
Besides the meetings of the former leaders and the one called by Dr. Muhammed, some influential governors of the North also held series of meetings in Kaduna. After one of the meetings, Niger State governor, Babangida, declared at an event marking the inauguration of the Sadauna Foundation, that economic restructuring was imperative in the land. He gave examples where some states were believed to be doing very well, while others were merely able to pay salaries.
PDP convention opened 2015 strategising
But the conclusion of the national convention of the PDP can be said to have given the clear indication that all is now set for the fierce contest ahead of the 2015 battle. While it emerged early in the day that the Presidency was in favour of consensus option in picking the new National Working Committee (NWC) members, the intrigues that eventually played out clearly showed that the 2015 game was already afoot.
Initially, governors of the PDP were said to have struck an agreement with President Jonathan. The agreement was to the effect that the governors would agree on the candidates for zonal offices among themselves and present common candidates in all the zones, while the president would present the candidate for office of national chairman. In presenting his favoured candidate, Tukur, President Jonathan, however, chose to still go through the governors of the North-East zone. At the meeting where Tukur was to be ratified, the president ensured that he was presented by the governors of the zone.
But more politics were to creep in. Soon after the endorsement, some of the governors started speaking from the other side of the mouth. The game was eventually played out at the North-East congress of the PDP, where a mock election was conducted for all aspirants to the national chairman seat. Tukur was roundly defeated by Dr. Musa Babayo.
N/East governors’ actions woke Jonathan up
The development sent signals to the Jonathan camp that the game had really started. The President’s camp had to really dig in to ensure that Tukur emerged the party’s helmsman.
Some information being unveiled in the political circles indicated that Tukur’s emergence could lead to a situation where the 2015 Presidency is thrown open between the North and the South.
Those who fought Jonathan’s emergence in 2011 had done so, believing that the period 2011 to 2015 should be reserved for a Northern candidate in view of the sudden death of President Umaru Yar’Adua in 2010, which robbed the North of the Presidency. Flowing from that, some Northern political heavyweights had held on to the belief that Jonathan will not seek re-election in 2015. Such belief was also fuelled by the common talk ahead of 2011 election that Jonathan should only be allowed to complete the reminder of Yar’Adua’s tenure since the duo came on a joint ticket in 2007.
The realisation that Tukur’s emergence could pave the way for another term in office for Jonathan emerged from nowhere. There were no official confirmations, but the political scene was abuzz with information to that effect in the few days ahead of the PDP convention. Some even added that the Tukur had already struck an agreement with Jonathan to that effect. Thus, to show the way the game is played, Tukur lost in his own home yard. The power brokers in the zone claimed that the man lost the election because he had not been on good terms with the grassroots in his home zone and that they could do nothing to help him. The powers in Abuja, however, insisted on Tukur, in line with the earlier agreement struck with the governors.
The Presidency was said to have been of the opinion that since the president had kept his own side of the bargain, it saw nothing too difficult in the governors fulfilling theirs.’ The buildup to Tukur’s eventual emergence has already opened the frontiers for the 2015 race.
Again, Tukur’s emergence was being seen in some quarters as a way of shutting down the presidential aspiration of former Vice President Atiku since the duo hails from the same Adamawa State.
In the aftermath of that election, there is also the talk of the emergence of a G-10 said to be strategising ahead of the 2015 elections. Membership is still kept under wraps, but it has been confirmed that some senior citizens constituted the group.
Questions and Answers over Jonathan
Will President Jonathan seek re-election into office in 2015? That is the question most Northern political gladiators would want answered as fast as possible. The resolution of that question would immediately put the clear direction to the battle of 2015. There are issues around this question. There are those who believe that Jonathan would not be eligible to contest the presidential election again, since he has received the oath of office twice under the 1999 Constitution.
Constitution presents a puzzle
Others also believe that the president should simply walk away after completing the tenure of his late boss, which should, in their reckoning, should have ended in 2015. The 1999 Constitution, however, presents a glaring puzzle to all these arguments. Section 137(1b) states that a person could be disqualified from contesting the office of the president, if he had been elected into that office on two previous occasions. The operating word is “elected,” which is different from “sworn-in” as the case is. Already, some concerned citizens have filed a suit at an Abuja court, seeking the interpretation of the section. But aside the claim credited to Presidential Spokesman, Reuben Abati, to the effect that Jonathan was just in his first tenure of office, the president has refrained from joining the 2015 debate. At the recent meeting of the NEC of the PDP, Jonathan declared that some office holders were distracting him with the talk of 2015 and he warned his political appointees to shun such debate or risk being relieved of their offices.
Aside the push for the interpretation of that constitutional provision, there are some other knotty issues for resolution, if the North must have it all clear in the next general election. The issues are embedded in some questions, including which of the three zones in the North should produce the presidential candidate? The North-West was denied the opportunity of a full tenure through Yar’Adua in 2010; the North East sees itself as a marginalised area in terms of Presidency since it has not had the opportunity to hold the office since the time of the late Prime Minister, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa.
The North-Central also sees itself as a marginalised area. It has never produced a democratically-elected president since Nigeria’s independence.
Currently, the North-West has the nation’s number two citizen, Alhaji Namadi Sambo, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, the North-Central has the president of the Senate, Senator David Mark, while the North-East has the national chairman of the PDP.
With some of the above mentioned political heavyweights already putting finishing touches to the expected battle of 2015, it is expected that the political terrain would soon get flooded with messages of varying dimensions, all wooing the electorate to focus on the democratic dividends of the future.
Tukur’s election precipitates moves in PDP
With the election of Alhaji Bamanga Tukur as National Chairman of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) on March 24, the eyes of top political heavyweights in the land have now set on 2015. The emerging realignment of forces in the North and the South is indicative of a titanic battle ahead. In the North, forces within the PDP are already positioning for the election in different directions. There is the emerging force of the governors, especially in the three zones of the North, while in the South, things have been silent with unclear signals coming from the camp of President Goodluck Jonathan.
Oppositions also strategising
Around the opposition figures, loyalists of former governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Tinubu, recently urged him to join the presidential race. Even before then, Tinubu has been seen to set up a 2015 war room with every indication pointing to the likelihood of the man taking a shot directly, rather than queuing behind General Muhammadu Buhari as running mate, a plot that failed to materialise in 2011.
Opposition political forces in the North have also been coalescing around General Buhari, founder of the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), who is still being persuaded by his loyalists to join the race. He had said during the last contest that the 2011 election would be his last.
Names of notable contenders emerging
Names already coming to the fore include Vice President Namadi Sambo, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, Jigawa State governor, Alhaji Sule Lamido; Niger State governor, Muazu Babangida Aliyu; his Bauchi State counterpart, Mallam Isa Yuguda; Adamawa State governor, Murtala Nyako; and Sokoto State governor, Alhaji Aliyu Magartakarda Wammako.
Others include Senate President David Mark, Governor Gabriel Suswam of Benue State, former Kwara State governor, Senator Bukola Saraki; former Minister of the Federal Capital Territory (FCT), Mallam Nasiru el-Rufai; among others.
Silent realignments ongoing in the North
Movements in the Northern political sphere in recent months have suggested a realignment of forces, with the likes of former Military President, General Ibrahim Babangida; former Head of State, General Abdusalami Abubakar; and former Vice President Atiku Abubakar holding strategic meetings.
Though the meetings were portrayed as avenues to discuss the security situation in the country, especially the menace of Boko Haram, which has ravaged the Northern states, feelers indicated that the leaders tried to send a signal by holding a public meeting.
On the heels of the Babangida-Atiku- Abdusalami parley was also another gathering of Northern political bigwigs put together by Dr. Junaid Mohammed. While the parley by Babangida and others gave indication that it was concerned about resolving the security challenge in the North, the concerned eminent Northern leaders led by Dr. Mohammed did not hide their direction.
The group projected itself as the mouthpiece of the North, stating emphatically that it would back the convocation of a National Conference which would guarantee the adjustment of the current revenue formula.
The group expressed the belief that the revenue formula is skewed in favour of the South-South, which now enjoys the 13 per cent derivation funds as a result of oil exploration activities in the states.
The Northern elders, in a statement endorsed by the convener of the meeting Dr. Muhammed, said going by the growing conflicts and insecurity in the land, time was ripe for the restructuring of Nigeria.
Those who attended the meeting include governors of Niger and Jigawa states, Dr. Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu, and Alhaji Sule Lamido; former Senate President, Dr. Iyorchia Ayu; former Deputy Senate President, Dr. John Wash-Pam; former Secretary to the Government of the Federation, Alhaji Yayale Ahmed; former ministers including, Dr. Shettima Mustapha, Alhaji Adamu Maina Waziri and Malam Lawal Batagarawa, and a former Chairman of the Presidential Advisory Council, Professor Nur Alkali.
Others include former Chairman of Langtang South Local Government Area of Plateau State, Mr. Solomon Dalung; former Presidential Legal Advisers, Ibrahim Ismail; and Professor Awwal Yadudu.
The statement read: “The meeting resolved to support the calls for the restructuring of the Nigerian Federation in the hope that the lopsidedness in the structure of the nation’s politics and economy will be a key agenda issue.
“It then called on the Northern Governors’ Forum (NGF) to liaise with other stakeholders in the North, such as the Arewa Consultative Forum (ACF), Northern Union (NU), Jama’atul Nasirl Islam (JNI), Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN), women, youths and students’ bodies and other groups to join hands to tackle the identified threats confronting the region.”
Moves began in the North February
A flurry of political activities actually took place around February and early March to indicate that the North was flagging off the race for 2015. Dr. Mohammed was to follow up the meeting he convened with press interviews where he let the veil off the agenda of the North. He said the region ought to do everything it could to win back power in 2015.
el-Rufai leads CPC political engineers
The CPC, which had discussed the issue of 2015 at two meetings, held early in the year, also kick-started its reengineering plans with Mallam Nasir el-Rufai as the head. The party is yet to clear the air on whether it has been able to convince its founder, General Buhari, to re-contest the general election or whether it would allow former Minister of the FCT, el-Rufai, to take a shot at the Presidency.
Northern governors’ crucial meetings
Besides the meetings of the former leaders and the one called by Dr. Muhammed, some influential governors of the North also held series of meetings in Kaduna. After one of the meetings, Niger State governor, Babangida, declared at an event marking the inauguration of the Sadauna Foundation, that economic restructuring was imperative in the land. He gave examples where some states were believed to be doing very well, while others were merely able to pay salaries.
PDP convention opened 2015 strategising
But the conclusion of the national convention of the PDP can be said to have given the clear indication that all is now set for the fierce contest ahead of the 2015 battle. While it emerged early in the day that the Presidency was in favour of consensus option in picking the new National Working Committee (NWC) members, the intrigues that eventually played out clearly showed that the 2015 game was already afoot.
Initially, governors of the PDP were said to have struck an agreement with President Jonathan. The agreement was to the effect that the governors would agree on the candidates for zonal offices among themselves and present common candidates in all the zones, while the president would present the candidate for office of national chairman. In presenting his favoured candidate, Tukur, President Jonathan, however, chose to still go through the governors of the North-East zone. At the meeting where Tukur was to be ratified, the president ensured that he was presented by the governors of the zone.
But more politics were to creep in. Soon after the endorsement, some of the governors started speaking from the other side of the mouth. The game was eventually played out at the North-East congress of the PDP, where a mock election was conducted for all aspirants to the national chairman seat. Tukur was roundly defeated by Dr. Musa Babayo.
N/East governors’ actions woke Jonathan up
The development sent signals to the Jonathan camp that the game had really started. The President’s camp had to really dig in to ensure that Tukur emerged the party’s helmsman.
Some information being unveiled in the political circles indicated that Tukur’s emergence could lead to a situation where the 2015 Presidency is thrown open between the North and the South.
Those who fought Jonathan’s emergence in 2011 had done so, believing that the period 2011 to 2015 should be reserved for a Northern candidate in view of the sudden death of President Umaru Yar’Adua in 2010, which robbed the North of the Presidency. Flowing from that, some Northern political heavyweights had held on to the belief that Jonathan will not seek re-election in 2015. Such belief was also fuelled by the common talk ahead of 2011 election that Jonathan should only be allowed to complete the reminder of Yar’Adua’s tenure since the duo came on a joint ticket in 2007.
The realisation that Tukur’s emergence could pave the way for another term in office for Jonathan emerged from nowhere. There were no official confirmations, but the political scene was abuzz with information to that effect in the few days ahead of the PDP convention. Some even added that the Tukur had already struck an agreement with Jonathan to that effect. Thus, to show the way the game is played, Tukur lost in his own home yard. The power brokers in the zone claimed that the man lost the election because he had not been on good terms with the grassroots in his home zone and that they could do nothing to help him. The powers in Abuja, however, insisted on Tukur, in line with the earlier agreement struck with the governors.
The Presidency was said to have been of the opinion that since the president had kept his own side of the bargain, it saw nothing too difficult in the governors fulfilling theirs.’ The buildup to Tukur’s eventual emergence has already opened the frontiers for the 2015 race.
Again, Tukur’s emergence was being seen in some quarters as a way of shutting down the presidential aspiration of former Vice President Atiku since the duo hails from the same Adamawa State.
In the aftermath of that election, there is also the talk of the emergence of a G-10 said to be strategising ahead of the 2015 elections. Membership is still kept under wraps, but it has been confirmed that some senior citizens constituted the group.
Questions and Answers over Jonathan
Will President Jonathan seek re-election into office in 2015? That is the question most Northern political gladiators would want answered as fast as possible. The resolution of that question would immediately put the clear direction to the battle of 2015. There are issues around this question. There are those who believe that Jonathan would not be eligible to contest the presidential election again, since he has received the oath of office twice under the 1999 Constitution.
Constitution presents a puzzle
Others also believe that the president should simply walk away after completing the tenure of his late boss, which should, in their reckoning, should have ended in 2015. The 1999 Constitution, however, presents a glaring puzzle to all these arguments. Section 137(1b) states that a person could be disqualified from contesting the office of the president, if he had been elected into that office on two previous occasions. The operating word is “elected,” which is different from “sworn-in” as the case is. Already, some concerned citizens have filed a suit at an Abuja court, seeking the interpretation of the section. But aside the claim credited to Presidential Spokesman, Reuben Abati, to the effect that Jonathan was just in his first tenure of office, the president has refrained from joining the 2015 debate. At the recent meeting of the NEC of the PDP, Jonathan declared that some office holders were distracting him with the talk of 2015 and he warned his political appointees to shun such debate or risk being relieved of their offices.
Aside the push for the interpretation of that constitutional provision, there are some other knotty issues for resolution, if the North must have it all clear in the next general election. The issues are embedded in some questions, including which of the three zones in the North should produce the presidential candidate? The North-West was denied the opportunity of a full tenure through Yar’Adua in 2010; the North East sees itself as a marginalised area in terms of Presidency since it has not had the opportunity to hold the office since the time of the late Prime Minister, Abubakar Tafawa Balewa.
The North-Central also sees itself as a marginalised area. It has never produced a democratically-elected president since Nigeria’s independence.
Currently, the North-West has the nation’s number two citizen, Alhaji Namadi Sambo, and the Speaker of the House of Representatives, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal, the North-Central has the president of the Senate, Senator David Mark, while the North-East has the national chairman of the PDP.
With some of the above mentioned political heavyweights already putting finishing touches to the expected battle of 2015, it is expected that the political terrain would soon get flooded with messages of varying dimensions, all wooing the electorate to focus on the democratic dividends of the future.
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