2015: Opposition’s granite coalition against PDP

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Written by Olawale Rasheed Friday, 04 May 2012

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President Goodluck Jonathan

Opposition political parties are frantically plotting a grand coalition to defeat the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) in the 2015 general election. Regional Editor, Olawale Rasheed, delves into the schemings and mechanics of the alliance and attendant challenges facing its proponents.

As the ruling party convulses on succession issues, various political forces of various persuasions are back in the board rooms with plots and schemes to retain or hijack political power, while opposition leaders are nurturing an underground alliance, the nature of which is still shrouded in mystery.

The Friday Edition’s survey of the political space showed that politicians within and outside the PDP regard 2015 as an era of possible change of power, citing the ongoing power play within the ruling party as an example. The confrontation within the PDP, which started in 2011, is cited as still ongoing even with more intensity and a dangerous dimension in form of armed insurgency now ravaging the country.

The PDP is considered by leaders of opposition and some elements within the ruling party to be in its weakest form now going by the rash of public probes, increasing insecurity and general challenges of governing a diverse nation with near break down of elite consensus.

Findings within the opposition on the subject of power play for 2015 revealed other discomforting facts for leaders of the ruling party, such as the belief that the crisis rocking the ruling party can only be resolved, if the presidential ticket goes to the North in 2015. Other expectations of the opposition is that the perceived groundswell of public anger will sweep the PDP out of power, provided the opposition can come together.

It was, however, learnt that two happenings in two other African countries actually energised the increasing push of the Nigerian opposition for a grand alliance against the PDP. The first was the electoral victory of an opposition leader, Ama Shata, in the Zambian presidential election after the man had contested more than five times. The joining of hands behind Shata was widely cited as the reason for the defeat of the Zambian ruling party. That the Zambian opposition defeated the entrenched ruling party was cited by some opposition leaders as an inspiration.

Vice-President Namadi Sambo

Investigation further showed that the second motivation was the Senegalese presidential election, during which the opposition at the second round united behind a single candidate and beat former president Abdoulaye Wade. Ex-president Wade and his team had expected disunity among the opposition to prevent the formation of an alliance, an expectation that was dashed when the opposition presidential candidates stepped down and backed a common candidate.

Reports of thye Nigerian opposition planning a grand alliance is not new, as it dates back to pre-independence politics. The constant failure of such exercise is also widely acknowledged even among opposition leaders. Speaking with the Nigerian Tribune in late 2011, the National Chairman of Congress for Progressive Change (CPC), Prince Tony Momoh, lamented the failure of the opposition to unite and face President Goodluck Jonathan in the last election, a situation he attributed to ego problem among alliance partners.

“But we have learnt our lessons and the outcome of the election showed that the PDP cannot be defeated without all opposition leaders coming together. We are in touch with each other now and we all realised the bitter facts. We will form the alliance again,” he said.

While Prince Momoh refused to elaborate on the plan, he was emphatic in affirming that renewed contacts have been made with the Action Congress of Nigeria (ACN). As at 2011, the CPC chair talked about alliance, meaning collaboration among the opposition parties in presentation of candidates in accordance with the areas of strengths of the parties.

Nuhu Ribadu

This, however, changed in early 2012 when the CPC failed to regain most northern states through the tribunals, as some of its leaders had hoped. The failure at the tribunals, which left the party with only one out of the nineteen northern states, was said to have lowered their morale with most of its leaders engaging in blame game. Pre and post election internal feuds within the party threatened its popular image across the North, leading to sudden re-entrance of Mallam Nasir El-Rufai as the chief strategist of the party.

Rufai came with an elaborate rebuilding agenda alongside collaboration with other opposition political parties, leading to the formation of a nationwide committee. The committee is credited with practically re-assembling rich and influential members of the Yar’Adua caucus who now commit themselves to wrestling power from the PDP under Jonathan. Reports indicated that the Rufai committee, while reviving the spirit of late President Yar’Adua also led to the establishment of two newspapers and the pumping of mobilisation resources into the alliance efforts.

The Friday Edition learnt that the Yar’Adua factor probably re-ignited the fraternal collaboration between CPC and ACN as Tinubu is reputed to have close affinity with the Yar’Adua family. With a Yar’Adua caucus bitter over the politics surrounding the death of their principal, Tinubu’s ACN provided a potent southern platform and ally to re-launch the power struggle. A new brotherhood is thus being formed, oiled with symbolism ranging from Buhari’s Spartan image, Yar’Adua’s machine and Tinubu’s political structure.

The above led to a sudden change of vision from alliance to merger. Inside sources who confirmed the development was emphatic in pointing out that the initial preliminary talks had provided the imperative for a full merger among all anti-PDP forces. According to the source, “we realised during initial contacts after the 2011 polls that we just must go the whole hog. We have no irreconcilable differences as our common target and enemy is the PDP.”

Bisi Akande, ACN National Chairman

“We accept now that Tinubu and his men are successful in holding their ground while we could not hold our own. The ACN is not only controlling the South-West, but has overtaken the ANPP as the second biggest political party in the country. So, we accept Tinubu and his men as the senior partner”, the source high up within the CPC confessed.

The two allies did not arrive at this stage overnight. Senator Tinubu had made frantic forays into northern territories which rattled even General Buhari. The sudden potency of ACN in Kogi, Adamawa, Benue and other parts of the north left the CPC leader with no choice than to work with Tinubu. Increasingly, ACN competes for territories with the CPC in both the North-Central and the North-East, thereby confirming its potency not just in the South-West, but across the nation. El Rufai was said to have drummed this fact into the ears of Buhari and his caucus of puritans who reportedly loathed Tinubu’s politics and antecedents.

The Friday Edition delved into internal scheming for the “granite” coalition and findings confirmed a new level of determination and strategic deployments of tactics the ruling party must work hard to thwart. First was this unbelievable level of give-and-take which has seen hardliners in both camps holding their fires and leaving the moderates on both sides to take up the task. The puritan in Buhari’s camp who feared dilution and the national networkers within Tinubu’s caucus who feel the ACN can do it alone are not having a voice in the plan. This was demonstrated by the acceptance of the ACN as the senior partner, a position unthinkable a year ago when Buhari and his team believed the Katsina General was a president in waiting.

Another finding was the resolve of the partners to put everything on the table. An ACN lawmaker in Abuja said no group is coming with preconditions, adding that “all positions and structures of the expected party is on the table.” The allies had fallen apart in pre-2011 talks over issue of logo, party name, vice presidential candidate, among others.

Insiders noted that unlike in the past, General Buhari has greatly softened his stance on the alliance. The former leader, who had wept before the last poll, is said to have listened to leaders of the opposition such as El-Rufai and others that puritanism may be a stumbling block to defeating the PDP.

If Buhari is now soft, the allies also adopted what appears like oath of secrecy as the discussions were restricted to top level leaders alongside a policy of avoidance of media exposure.

While previous negotiations were conducted on pages of newspapers, the current talk is shrouded in mystery with the opposition keeping

largely mute on strategies and tactics in the new effort. As negotiation is kept under raps, there is also the deliberate effort to portray the new coalition as a pan Nigerian agenda, rather than a CPC-ACN deal. Already, the allies are said to be reaching out to the All Nigeria Peoples Party (ANPP), which controls two states in the north, and the All Progressive Grand Alliance (APGA) which also mans two states in the South Eastern part of the country.

A chieftain of the CPC from Enugu, Osita Chuwkuma told The Friday Edition that “our effort is to unite all progressives and wrest power from the PDP. We are reaching out to all progressives. We even want progressives within the PDP to come out and join this new movement.”

Other internal dynamics of this coalition include intense plot to form a sort of working collaboration with some disgruntled members of the PDP. As PDP feud deepens over 2015 presidential ticket, key northern leaders of the party are increasingly being targeted by the opposition for collaboration. The plot is particularly focusing on some northern power brokers of the PDP who are threatening fire and brimstones, if the Presidency does not return to the North in 2015.

The plot extends to tinkering with the formation of regional alliance behind the coalition with a focus on isolating the Ijaw section of the South-South in future electoral mathematics. A prominent leader of the ANPP, Hajia Bashirat Naibi, on her twitter page, recently advocated a North/South-West alliance to produce the next president. According to her, Yoruba votes added to core northern votes with a sprinkle from the South-East would produce a president. While this may not represent the official view of those behind the agenda, there is obviously a plot to sideline the Niger Delta by working out a presidential equation that will render Niger Delta votes impotent.

Bola Tinubu

There is also the propaganda side to the grand coalition that the PDP is proving weak in tackling. The war for the soul of Nigeria is now online and the coalition allies are making impressive show. A check across the Facebook and Twitter pages revealed a vicious opposition onslaught on the PDP with no potent response by the ruling party. Mallam El-Rufal, through his twitter page, is tearing the PDP to pieces with facts and figures without any strong counter voice from the ruling party.

The strategy of the coalition allies is to tap into youth energy which is represented by the social media and create a mass of followers long before the 2015 polls. Coalition partners are investing heavily in online propaganda which is now being complemented by critical voices now emerging from the print and electronic media.

If the battle is already online, The Friday Edition also discovered a growing partnership between the coalition partners and the civil society. Increasingly, the apolitical NGOs, both local and international, are now political largely on the side of the opposition. Almost all the credible NGOs regularly line up against the PDP and its government in the midst of opposition figures, a development that has an international dimension to it.

This has to do with the subtle position on 2015 already being taken by some Western governments. Most western think tanks, in their assessment of Nigeria, largely blame the incumbent government and, by implication, the PDP for the woes befallen the nation. Worst still, the Chatham House, the United Kingdom premier think tank, which is widely known as the mother of the United States Central Intelligence Agency, invited Senator Tinubu to address its session late last year. Comments from many American think tanks reflect a measure of disapproval for the status quo in Nigeria. There are rumours of external conspiracy in the ongoing coalition structuring in Nigeria.

The Friday Edition investigations, however, showed that the efforts of the partners have not been all smooth sailing. The unresolved issue of Buhari’s ambition is still on the table. Recent comments by the General in Kaduna brought the issue to the fore again. The fact that Buhari may run for presidency again is threatening to derail the merger talks.

Some inner caucus members of Buhari’s organisation are said to be of the view that the General should make the last ditch effort in 2015. They are encouraged that if the veteran opposition leader in Zambia can make it to the presidency at over seventy years of age, Buhari should remain in the race. The puritans, led by CPC National Secretary, Buba Galadima, see Buhari as the messiah Nigerian needs in this period of national emergency.

Younger elements, led by El-Rufai and the new Yar’Adua caucus, however, think Buhari can remain in politics as a leader without contesting for the presidency. This division may have accounted for the lack of definitiveness in the statement issued by the CPC after the Kaduna statement by the General. Nothing in the said statement categorically affirmed that the General will not run for the presidency in 2015.

For the ACN, this may be a hard nut to crack, as many of its chieftains believe that CPC is no longer in a position to dictate terms of the merger. The Buhari candidacy is also seen by ACN leaders as divisive, as it evokes memories of post 1984 coup among the Yorubas. There was also the view within the ACN that possible defectors from the PDP will stay put, if the possibility of Buhari picking the presidential ticket is still on the table.

Two weeks or so after Buhari’s comment, there were also disputed reports of a meeting between the president and some ACN leaders, led by Senator Tinubu. The report already denied by Senator Tinubu came just a few days after The Friday Edition reported as follows under the title, “Yoruba in National Chess game”.

“The deals of the past appear not properly firmed up though. For example, nothing is as yet clear as to what actually happened in the last presidential election which saw the opposition allegedly working and voting for a PDP presidential candidate. The rumour mill of that period was not quashed and the impression still remains that the ACN, indeed, had an unspoken alliance with the president. Again, the deal, if it exists, must have finally collapsed and in its wake is assumed old friends now at daggers drawn. If the opposition indeed struck a deal to

support the president, then the understanding was either not clearly defined or the partners betrayed each other.”

Some observers believe rightly or wrongly that allies in the old deals may be plotting to revive the alliance despite betrayals on both sides. Was the alleged meeting designed to revive the accord, if any? Was it a counter ploy by the presidency to dissuade Tinubu from forging the alliance with the CPC?

Whatever the fact of the report, the product of a deal betrayed is now hunting the presidency and the PDP. An ally ensured the defeat of a presidential nominee for House speakership, leading to an ACN chief having apparent stranglehold on a PDP dominated House of Representatives. As was recorded earlier, by providing a bloc vote for a PDP House speaker, the opposition established a strategic presence within the internal politics of the PDP. In a political brinkmanship very classical in the nation’s history, the Speaker of the House of

Representatives does not belong to the president’s wing within the power politics of the PDP.

Hence, the alleged meeting between the president and the ACN leaders rattled CPC leaders. The spokesman of the CPC, Rotimi Fashakin, told The Friday Edition that the president reserves the right to meet anybody in his efforts to address national challenges. When asked about the effect on the merger talks, Fashakin affirmed that the meeting could not have been about political alliances, adding that “we know Senator Tinubu knows the PDP better than to fall for their baits”.

Muhammadu Buhari

Mr Osita, the gubernatorial candidate of the CPC for Enugu in the last poll, had a subtle warning for the ACN leaders: “If ACN should back PDP again, Yorubas will vote against them. Senator Tinubu and other leaders are aware of this.”

Another challenges facing the coalition is the perceived closeness of APGA to the ruling party. With two APGA governors known to be very close to the PDP, many are skeptical that APGA will join any coalition. Talks are however said to be ongoing. The same scenario may play out with the ANPP even though the party leadership is unhappy with what it called “PDP’s snatching of ANPP victory in Ebonyi State”. Frantic negotiation, is, however said to be ongoing among ANPP and CPC leaders in the northern part of the country.

Whatever comes of the granite coalition should be taken as alarm bell for the ruling party. Whatever shape the future contest takes should alert the status quo to challenging preparations by the opposition. As a recent confidential report of the African National Congress of South Africa noted, “any ruling party should occasionally consider the possibility of losing power.”